Predictors of anticoagulation quality in 15 834 patients performing patient self-management of oral anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists in real-life practice: a survey of the International Self-Monitoring Association of Orally Anticoagulated Patients

Although patient self-management (PSM) of oral anticoagulation with vitamin K antagonists is recommended for patients requiring long-term anticoagulation, important aspects are still unclear. Using data from a large international survey (n = 15 834; median age 72 years; 30·1% female), we studied predictors of poor anticoagulation control (percentage of International Normalized Ratio values within therapeutic range below 75%) and developed a simple prediction model. The following variables were identified as risk factors for poor anticoagulation control and included in the final model: higher intensity of therapeutic range (odds ratio [OR] on every level 1·9; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1·8–2·0), long intervals between measurements (>14 d; 1·5; 95% CI 1·3–1·7), female sex (OR 1·3; 95% CI 1·2–1·4), and management other than PSM (OR 1·4; 95% CI 1·2–1·6). At a threshold of 0·2 (at least one variable present), the model predicted poor anticoagulation control with a sensitivity of 85·3% (95% CI: 84·0, 86·4) and a specificity of 28·5% (27·6, 29·5). The area under the receiver operated characteristic curve was 0·65. Using the proposed prediction model, physicians will be able to identify patients with a low chance of performing well, considering additional training, regular follow-up, or adjustment of therapeutic ranges.